COAD Policy Calculator

Note: Funding capacity and demand both scale linearly between Year 1 and Year 15 parameters. Buffer should remain positive throughout. A negative buffer in any year indicates a funding gap that would require additional policy response.

Basis note (1 September 2026, updated 21 September 2026): the demand figures this buffer is measured against rest on a recipient count that is not yet established. COAD's $76B Year 15 demand is calculated on approximately 2.17 million active recipients rather than the 2.54 million cumulative displaced cohort, and that 2.17 million figure was never independently derived — it is $76B divided by the $35,000 payment. Testing on 21 September 2026 found it cannot be true on COAD's own inputs: it would require a 1.71 per cent annual exit rate and a median of roughly 40 years on payment in a program with a 15-year horizon. Which way the error runs is not yet known. On the published 2.54 million count, peak demand is $88.9B and the Year 15 buffer is about 2.7 per cent rather than 20 per cent; the published evidence on re-employment and income-support duration points instead to materially fewer active recipients, lower demand and a larger buffer. Both readings are artefacts of unstated assumptions. Capacity figures are sound; demand and buffer outputs should be treated as provisional pending the recipient-basis modelling. See FAQ 1.5.